| 胡文博,王 宣,陈 艳.增量配电背景下考虑不确定性修正的规划负荷预测方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2020,22(2):57-61 |
| 增量配电背景下考虑不确定性修正的规划负荷预测方法 |
| Uncertainty correction method for planned load forecasting under the background of incremental distribution |
| 投稿时间：2019-10-25 修订日期：2019-12-06 |
| DOI：DOI:10.3969 / j. issn. 1009-1831. 2020. 02. 010 |
| 中文关键词: 增量配电市场 负荷预测 电网规划 不确定性分析 分布式能源 |
| 英文关键词: incremental distribution market load forecast⁃ing power network planning uncertainty analysis distributed en⁃ergy |
| 基金项目:国家武汉市供电公司科技项目（Z915A018C041） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 4975 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对新一轮电改推进背景下的城市及园区级增量配电网市场，在分析该背景下电网规划中负荷预测问题与需求的基础上，对面向增量配网规划的负荷预测结论描述方式进行了改进，并进一步提出了考虑分布式能源、入住率等不确定性因素的负荷预测模型，根据预测需求设定不同的置信区间，对不同发展状态下的增量配电园区进行负荷预测修正。实际算例表明，该方法可为园区增量配电网规划提供考虑不确定性因素的量化思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Aiming at the incremental distribution network market at park level under the background of the new round of electricity reform, the problems and demands of load forecasting in power network planning are analyzed, and the description of load forecasting conclusions for incremental distribution network planning is improved, and a load forecasting model considering uncertainties such as distributed energy and occupancy rate is further proposed.Different confidence intervals is set according to the forecasting demand, and the load forecasting of incremental distribution parks under different development conditions is revised. Practical examples show that the method can provide a quantitative idea for precise planning of park incremental distribution network considering uncertainties. |
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