| 佘利慧,汤江晖,傅质馨,朱明晞,许一洲,刘皓明.双碳背景下区域碳排放预测研究及情景分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2023,25(3):62-66 |
| 双碳背景下区域碳排放预测研究及情景分析 |
| Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-09 修订日期：2023-03-10 |
| DOI：10. 3969 / j. issn. 1009-1831. 2023. 03. 010 |
| 中文关键词: 碳排放预测 碳排放路径 情景分析 马尔科夫模型 LEAP模型 |
| 英文关键词: carbon emission prediction carbon emission path scenario analysis Markov model LEAP model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51907050） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在双碳目标背景下，针对城市碳排放路径预测，提出了一种区域碳排放预测方法。通过马尔科夫模型与长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型，实现对各行业的能源消费结构与能源需求量的预测。在此基础上，通过计算各能源的碳排放因子，并考虑能源结构优化与能源需求降低对碳排放的影响，预测不同情景下的区域碳排放量。最终，以中国某城市为例开展了区域碳排放路径预测的案例分析，结果表明，所提方法可以有效预测出区域的碳排放量及不同政策与技术发展对碳排放路径的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Under the background of the double carbon target,a regional carbon emission prediction method is proposed for urban carbon emission path prediction. Firstly, based on Markov model and long-range energy alternatives planning system（LEAP）model,the energy consumption structure and energy demand of various industries in the region are predicted. Secondly, by calculating the carbon emission factors of each energy source and considering the impact of energy structure optimization and energy demand reduction on carbon emissions, the regional carbon emissions are calculated under different scenarios. Finally, a case study of regional carbon emission path prediction is carried out with a certain city in China as an example. The results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the regional carbon emissions and the impact of different policies and technological development on the carbon emission path. |
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