| 冯田丰,王恩军,刘潇,汪可人.基于市场结构与市场趋势的火电企业碳交易策略研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(2):124-130 |
| 基于市场结构与市场趋势的火电企业碳交易策略研究 |
| Research on carbon trading strategy of electric power enterprises based on market structure and market trends |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-05 修订日期：2026-01-24 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.02.018 |
| 中文关键词: 碳配额市场 市场结构 市场趋势 寡头垄断 交易策略 |
| 英文关键词: carbon trading market market structure market trend oligopoly trading tactics |
| 基金项目:上海市2025年度高水平机构构建建设运行计划“软科学研究”重点项目(25692100400)；2025年度决策咨询研究国际航运中心专项课题(2025-LH-HY01) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 作为全国碳市场重要参与者，火电企业合理使用交易策略有助于降低履约成本，实现碳资产保值增值。首先刻画碳市场微观结构，依据配额分配量相对履约要求盈余/平衡/不足划分交易场景；随后分场景探究市场强趋势与弱趋势两种状态下的最优策略选择问题，发现趋势跟踪和均值回归策略分别在强趋势与弱趋势状态下表现最优。进一步发现，“趋势跟踪+均值回归”策略组合能够融合二者优势，相对单一策略在配额盈余场景下提升收益3.0%~5.4%，在配额平衡场景下提升收益17%~33%，在配额不足场景下降低成本0.1%~6.6%。基于市场结构与市场趋势构建差异化交易策略框架，为火电企业更好地参与全国碳市场提供指引。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| As key participants in the national carbon market, the rational use of trading strategies by thermal power enterprises is conducive to reducing compliance costs and enhancing the value of carbon assets. The microstructure of the carbon market is first characterized, and trading scenarios are classified into allowance surplus, balance, and deficit based on allowance allocation relative to compliance requirements. Under each scenario, optimal strategy choices under strong-trend and weak-trend market states are examined, showing that trend-following strategies perform best in strong-trend states, while mean-reversion strategies dominate in weak-trend states. Further results indicate that a combined strategy integrating both approaches outperforms single strategies, increasing returns by 3.0%~5.4% in surplus scenarios and by 17%~33% in balanced scenarios, while reducing costs by 0.1%~6.6% in deficit scenarios. A differentiated trading strategy framework work based on market structure and market trends is thus constructed to guide thermal power enterprises in more effective participation in the national carbon market. |
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