| 王佳颖,孙钢,李亦龙,冯威.考虑日前预测偏差的虚拟电厂多元柔性资源实时滚动优化修正方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(1):79-85 |
| 考虑日前预测偏差的虚拟电厂多元柔性资源实时滚动优化修正方法 |
| Real-time rolling optimization correction of virtual power plants with multiple flexible resources considering day-ahead forecast errors |
| 投稿时间：2025-10-08 修订日期：2025-12-15 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.01.011 |
| 中文关键词: 虚拟电厂 需求响应 功率偏差消除 协同调控 滚动优化 |
| 英文关键词: virtual power plant demand response power deviation correction coordinated control rolling optimization |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目(5400-202419222A-1-1-ZN) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 虚拟电厂通过聚合和协同调控需求侧可调节资源参与电网需求响应,已成为缓解新型电力系统供需不匹配的重要手段。受不可预测因素影响,空调与电动汽车等资源在执行日前调度计划时会因预测偏差而产生功率响应偏差。为此,提出了一种虚拟电厂多元柔性资源实时滚动优化修正方法。首先,建立电动汽车集群、空调负荷和蓄电池等可调节资源的控制模型,并结合实时更新的气象条件与电动汽车接网信息,准确量化虚拟电厂在执行日前调度计划时潜在的功率偏差。其次,通过引入各类可调节资源的量价关系曲线,分析进一步挖掘资源日内调节裕度所需的价格激励。最后,构建了多元资源实时协同优化修正模型,确定虚拟电厂偏差修正的最优分配策略,以经济性最优的方式实时消除日前预测误差带来的功率偏差。案例分析结果表明,对比传统仅依赖蓄电池作为备用资源的偏差修正策略,所提方法更具经济性,能更充分发挥多元资源的调节潜力,实现虚拟电厂的高效经济运行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Virtual power plants (VPPs), by aggregating and collaboratively controlling flexible demand-side resources, have become an important means to mitigate the supply-demand imbalance in modern power systems. Due to unpredictable factors, resources such as air conditioners and electric vehicles may exhibit power response deviations when executing day-ahead dispatch plans as a result of forecast errors. To address this, a real-time rolling optimization correction method for VPPs with multiple flexible resources is proposed. First, control models for adjustable resources—including electric vehicle clusters, air conditioning loads, and battery storage—are established. Combined with real-time updated weather conditions and electric vehicle connection information, this approach accurately quantifies the potential power deviation of the VPP during the execution of the day-ahead dispatch plan. Second, by introducing the price-quantity relationship curves of various flexible resources, the necessary price incentives for further tapping into their intra-day flexibility are analyzed. Finally, a real-time multi-resource coordinated optimization correction model is constructed to determine the optimal allocation strategy for power deviation correction in VPPs, thereby economically eliminating the power deviations caused by day-ahead forecast errors in real time. Case study results show that, compared with traditional correction strategies relying solely on battery storage as a backup resource, the proposed method is more economical and fully exploits the regulation potential of multiple flexible resources, enabling efficient and economic operation of VPPs. |
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