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| 大型城市的脱碳路径优化与动态碳配额分配方法 |
| Decarbonization pathway optimization and dynamic carbon quota allocation method for metropolitan areas |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-09 修订日期：2025-12-02 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: LEAP模型 脱碳路径 Stackelberg主从博弈 CNN-BiLSTM 碳配额动态分配 |
| 英文关键词: LEAP model decarbonization pathways Stackelberg game CNN-BiLSTM carbon quota allocation mechanism |
| 基金项目:国网天津市电力公司科技项目资助(经研-研发 2024-02) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在全球碳中和进程加速与城市脱碳系统日趋复杂的背景下，现有能源模型在城市层面应用存在刻画不足、碳配额分配机制僵化等问题。因此，提出建立大型城市的脱碳路径优化与碳配额动态分配方法。首先，模拟预测城市碳排放演变轨迹并优化城市脱碳路径。然后，考虑政府与行业间的博弈关系，建立计及主体差异性的碳配额动态调整机制并分析减排成本的敏感性。其次，提出动态分配求解方法。最后，采用天津市的算例分析，验证所提方法精准导向城市关键部门的脱碳路径，实现政府侧社会福利与行业侧企业利润的双重提升。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Against the backdrop of accelerating global carbon neutrality and increasingly complex urban decarbonization systems, existing energy models demonstrate deficiencies in urban-scale applications, including inadequate characterization and rigid carbon quota allocation mechanisms. Accordingly, this study proposes a method for optimizing decarbonization pathways and dynamically allocating carbon quotas in metropolitan areas. First, urban carbon emission evolution trajectories are simulated and predicted to optimize urban decarbonization pathways. Then, considering the game relationship between the gov-ernment and the industry, a dynamic carbon quota adjustment mechanism that accounts for subject differences is estab-lished, and the sensitivity of emission reduction costs is ana-lyzed. Subsequently, a dynamic allocation solution method is proposed. Finally, a case study of Tianjin verifies that the proposed method accurately guides the decarbonization pathways of key urban sectors while achieving dual improvement in government social welfare and industry corp orate profits. |
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