文章摘要
基于动态生产计划与Bi-GRU的用电预测与计价策略研究
Research on electricity forecasting and pricing strategy based on dynamic production planning and Bi-GRU
投稿时间：2025-10-23  修订日期：2025-11-20
DOI：
中文关键词: 初创企业  用电预测  动态计价策略  成本优化  双向门控循环单元
英文关键词: start up  electricity consumption forecasting  dynamic pricing strategy  cost optimization  bidirectional gated recurrent unit
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）
作者单位邮编
刘永建* 华夏云天航空发动机维修有限公司 241100
张雯璇 南京航空航天大学 
摘要点击次数: 18
全文下载次数: 0
中文摘要:
      为解决初创企业历史数据匮乏、生产计划波动大、用电模式不稳定的难题，提出了基于动态生产计划与双向门控循环单元（Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit，Bi-GRU）的用电预测与计价策略方法。首先，在分析影响企业用电的关键内外部因素的基础上，形成结构化的影响因素体系，将动态生产计划作为核心动态调整因子集成到预测模型中，构建了基于Bi-GRU的时间序列预测框架。然后进一步提出高功耗设备错峰调度策略，通过将可中断负荷调整至电价谷时段运行，优化用电时段分配。最后以某航发维修企业为例，利用企业建设图纸、设备清单及模拟生产计划等数据进行仿真测算。结果表明，该集成模型能够有效预测初创企业的用电峰值与总量，所提出的优化策略能够帮助企业降低年度用电成本。为面临类似挑战的初创制造企业提供了一套数据驱动与业务驱动相结合的精细化能源管理方法论。
英文摘要:
      To solve the problems of historical data scarcity, large fluctuations in production plans, and unstable electricity consumption patterns in start-up enterprises, a power consumption prediction and pricing strategy method based on dynamic production planning and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU) is proposed. Firstly, based on the analysis of key internal and external factors affecting enterprise electricity consumption, a structured system of influencing factors was formed. Dynamic production planning was integrated into the prediction model as the core dynamic adjustment factor, and a time series prediction framework based on Bi GRU was constructed. Then, a peak shaving scheduling strategy for high-power devices is further proposed, which optimizes the allocation of electricity consumption periods by adjusting interruptible loads to operate during electricity price valleys. Finally, taking a certain aviation maintenance enterprise as an example, simulation calculations were conducted using data such as enterprise construction drawings, equipment lists, and simulated production plans. The results indicate that the integrated model can effectively predict the peak and total electricity consumption of start-up enterprises, and the proposed optimization strategy can help enterprises reduce annual electricity costs. Provided a refined energy management methodology that combines data-driven and business driven approaches for start-up manufacturing companies facing similar challenges.
View Fulltext   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭