| 王德林,谢文锦,于希娟,王方雨,王海云.考虑新能源随机场景的省间电力现货日前鲁棒调度策略[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(4):57-63 |
| 考虑新能源随机场景的省间电力现货日前鲁棒调度策略 |
| Day-ahead robust scheduling strategy for inter-provincial electricity spot market considering stochastic scenarios of renewable energy |
| 投稿时间：2025-04-01 修订日期：2025-05-08 |
| DOI：10. 3969 / j. issn. 1009-1831. 2025. 04. 009 |
| 中文关键词: 新能源出力 随机场景 鲁棒调度 场景缩减 电力市场机组组合 |
| 英文关键词: renewable energy output stochastic scenarios robust scheduling scenario reduction power market unit commitment |
| 基金项目:国家电网有限公司总部科技项目（5108-202355047A-1-1-ZN） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对新能源出力的不确定性对调度计划的影响,提出考虑新能源随机场景的鲁棒调度方法。首先,针对新能源出力的随机场景生成,同时考虑误差的区间性和时序性,采用核密度法估计及马尔科夫链建模,再通过改进K-means算法进行场景缩减,生成供计算的日前新能源出力随机场景；其次,针对日内新能源出力偏离预测值的问题,构建了嵌入随机场景约束的鲁棒调度模型,考虑了随机场景约束及场景过渡约束；进一步,由于新能源随机场景个数太多导致鲁棒调度模型规模太大,提出一种基于随机场景可行性校核的鲁棒调度模型求解方法；最后基于某省级电网和区域电网网架模型,对所提出的鲁棒调度模型和求解方法的经济性、安全性、高效性进行了算例验证。结果表明,所提的鲁棒调度模型能解决高比例新能源参与的电力市场机组组合问题,且所提模型的求解方法的运行时间和求解效率在实际市场应用中是可接受的。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To address the impact of the uncertainty of renewable energy output on scheduling plans, a robust scheduling method considering stochastic scenarios of renewable energy is proposed. Firstly, for the generation of stochastic scenarios of renewable energy output, the interval and temporal characteristics of errors are taken into account. Kernel density estimation and Markov chain modeling are employed,followed by an improved K-means algorithm for scenario reduction, to generate day-ahead stochastic scenarios of renewable energy output for computation. Secondly, to tackle the issue of intraday deviations of renewable energy output from predicted values, a robust scheduling model incorporating stochastic scenario constraints is constructed, which considers both stochastic scenario constraints and scenario transition constraints. Furthermore, due to the large number of stochastic scenarios leading to an oversized robust scheduling model, a solution method based on stochastic scenario feasibility verification is proposed. Finally, the economic efficiency, safety, and effectiveness of the proposed robust scheduling model and solution method are validated through case studies based on a provincial and regional power grid framework. The results demonstrate that the proposed robust scheduling model can effectively solve the unit commitment problem in power markets with high penetration of renewable energy, and the running time and solution efficiency of the proposed model’s solution method are acceptable in practical market applications. |
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