| 陈星霖,邵光正,童凡杰,罗 晖,张东敏.基于“情景-应对”的城市大面积停电应急联动机制与策略[J].电力需求侧管理,2023,25(3):99-105 |
| 基于“情景-应对”的城市大面积停电应急联动机制与策略 |
| Scenario-response-based emergency linkage mechanism and strategy for large-scale blackouts in cities |
| 投稿时间：2023-01-09 修订日期：2023-02-26 |
| DOI：10. 3969 / j. issn. 1009-1831. 2023. 03. 016 |
| 中文关键词: 大面积停电 应急联动机制 情景分析模型 情景链 情景-应对 |
| 英文关键词: large-scale blackouts emergency linkage mechanism scenario analysis model scenario chain scenario-response |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC0810703）；中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目（090000KK52200127） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 城市大面积停电影响领域广泛，单一行业或部门难以应对，通过科学方法分析停电情景并构建涵盖多主体的应急联动机制十分必要。构建了情景分析模型，从风险演化、事件分类和逻辑层次3个维度对停电事件进行全方位、多层次的科学描述；基于城市系统理论和情景构建原则，通过实证分析和逻辑推演，构建停电及通信中断、供油中断、供水中断、交通瘫痪等关键情景链，结合案例分析应急联动的需求和不足。基于“情景-应对”视角，以电力抢修恢复为主体，构建涵盖电网企业内部、电厂与电网之间、政府与企业之间和民生行业之间的应急联动机制，提出更高效应对大面积停电事件的具体、可行的综合联动机制和策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Large- scale blackouts in cities affects a wide range of areas, and it is difficult for a single industry or department to deal with it. It is necessary to analyze the power failure scenario through scientific methods and build an emergency linkage mechanism covering multiple subjects. A scenario analysis model is constructed to describe power outage events from three dimensions:risk evolution, event classification and logical level. Based on the theory of urban system and the principle of scenario construction,through empirical analysis and logical deduction, key scenario chains such as power failure, communication interruption, oil supply interruption, water supply interruption and traffic paralysis are constructed, and the needs and deficiencies of emergency linkage are analyzed combined with cases. Based on the perspective of “scenario-response”, and taking electric power emergency repair and restoration as the main body, the emergency linkage mechanism covering the power grid enterprises, between the power plant and the grid, between the government and enterprises and between people’s livelihood industries is constructed, and the specific and feasible comprehensive linkage mechanism and strategy for higher effects on large-scale power outage events is proposed. |
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