| 张 翔,黄国日,宋艺航,姜庆国,洪笑峰,王 鹏.基于系统动力学的售电业务放开对电网企业影响的综合评价研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2020,22(1):86-91 |
| 基于系统动力学的售电业务放开对电网企业影响的综合评价研究 |
| Comprehensive evaluation research on the impact of power retail business liberalization to power grid enterprises based on system dynamics |
| 投稿时间：2019-09-09 修订日期：2019-11-27 |
| DOI：DOI:10. 3969 / j. issn. 1009-1831. 2020. 01. 017 |
| 中文关键词: 电力改革 售电放开 综合评价 系统动力学 |
| 英文关键词: electric power reform opening up of power sales comprehensive evaluation system dynamics |
| 基金项目:南方电网公司科技项目（ZBKJXM20170039） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2044 |
| 全文下载次数: 818 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 当前中国正在全面深化电力体制改革,售电业务将大规模放开,在给社会带来红利的同时,对电网企业生产经营产生巨大影响。引入系统动力学模型开展量化研究,按照业务流程,分别建立了售电业务成本-收入模型、输配电业务收入-成本模型、电力增值服务收入-成本模型、电网人员流失模型、现金流模型、需求响应模型、售电及相关业务利润模型等 7 个分模型。采用某省电力市场 2018 年年报的相关数据,分市场化电量增速变化、电网售电公司代理电量变化和售电购销价差变化3种情景,对电网相关指标的影响进行了仿真分析,为电网企业开展电力体制改革评估工作提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| At present, the domestic reform of the electric power system is comprehensively deepening, and the power retail business will be liberalized on a large scale, which will have a huge impact on the production and operation of power grid enterprises while bringing dividends to the society. The system dynamics model is introduced to conduct quantitative research. According to the business process, seven submodels of power retail business costrevenue model, power transmission and distribution business revenuscost model, power valueadded service revenuscost model, grid staff turnover model, cash flow model, demandside response model, power retail and related business profit model are respectively established. Based on the relevant data of the 2018 annual report of the electric power market in a province, the influence of the relevant indicators of the electric power grid is analyzed through three scenarios, namely the change of the growth rate of marketized electric power, the change of the agent electric power of the electric power selling company and the change of the price difference between the purchase and sale of electric power. The study has certain reference value for power grid enterprises to actively respond to the reform and carry out the evaluation of power system reform. |
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