| 唐建清,勇晔,薛溟枫,仲磊磊,卫志农.基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法的电-热联合系统概率能量流分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2019,21(4):17-22 |
| 基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法的电-热联合系统概率能量流分析 |
| Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method |
| 投稿时间：2019-05-15 修订日期：2019-05-28 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2019.04.006 |
| 中文关键词: 电-热联合系统 拟蒙特卡罗模拟 Sobol点列 概率能量流 |
| 英文关键词: combined heat and electricity system quasimonte carlo simulation Sobol point probabilistic energy flow |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51877071）；国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目（J2019017） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 电-热联合系统中分布式可再生能源出力波动大、电和热负荷随机变化。建立电-热联合系统含不确定性的稳态能量流模型。通过Sobol点列构造低偏差点列，基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法对随机变量抽样，考虑随机变量之间的相关性，求解电-热联合系统的概率能量流。算例表明所提方法收敛稳定性好，为后续研究电-热联合系统安全分析奠定了基础。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The output of distributed renewable energy fluctuates greatly and the electrical and thermal loads vary randomly in the combined heat and electricity system. A steady state energy flow model with uncertainties for the combined heat and electricity system is established. A low deviation point series through Sobol point series is constructed. Based on the quasimonte carlo simulation method, random variables are sampled, and the correlation between random variables is considered to solve the probabilistic energy flow of the combined heat and electricity system. The case shows that the proposed method has good convergence stability,which lays a foundation for the subsequent research on the safety analysis of the combined heat and electricity system. |
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