| 蒋浩然,刘小聪,李扬.基于多变量灰色预测模型的省级电力公司中长期电量预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2019,21(1):37-41 |
| 基于多变量灰色预测模型的省级电力公司中长期电量预测 |
| Mid and long term electricity consumption forecasting of provincial power companies based on multi-variable gray forecasting model |
| 投稿时间：2018-08-06 修订日期：2018-11-07 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2019.01.009 |
| 中文关键词: 电量预测 多变量灰色模型 关联度分析 |
| 英文关键词: electricity consumption forecasting multi⁃vari⁃able gray model correlation analysis |
| 基金项目:国家电网公司科技项目（XM2016020033815） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目前我国中长期电量预测的结果准确度难以进一步提高，且传统GM（1,1）由于其自身特点，已不再适应近年来全社会用电量变化呈现出的新规律。基于省级电力公司各产业全社会用电量数据，分析了用电量的变化规律。通过挖掘各产业影响用电量变化的因素，分产业建立多变量灰色预测模型，预测了江苏省2016—2018年全社会用电量，预测结果可靠。最后对模型应用的特点进行了总结。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| At present, the accuracy of domestic mid and long term power forecasting is hard to be further improved. Because of its own characteristics, traditional GM（1,1）no longer meets the new law of total electricity consumption in recent years. Based on the total electricity consumption data of various industries in provincial power companies, the changing law of electricity consumption is analyzed. Through mining various factors that influence the change of power consumption in each industry, multi variable gray models are established to forecast the whole society’s electricity consumption respectively in Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2018,and the result is reliable. Finally, the characteristics of the model application are summarized. |
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