| 林红阳,刘林,李喜兰,林章岁.大型活动对地区电力消耗变动影响分析——以金砖会议为例[J].电力需求侧管理,2018,20(4):31-35 |
| 大型活动对地区电力消耗变动影响分析——以金砖会议为例 |
| Analysis of impact of large⁃scale activities on regional electricity consumption changes: a case study of BRICS Conference |
| 投稿时间：2018-05-07 修订日期：2018-06-07 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2018.04.007 |
| 中文关键词: 金砖会议 电力消耗变动 投入产出法 |
| 英文关键词: BRICS Conference electricity consumption fluc-tuation input-output method |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1734 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 我国城市在重大活动期间，生产限制活动对该地区电力消耗会产生急剧的影响，提前识别相关活动可能带来的电力消耗波动，可为该地区电力供应企业提前优化其管理决策提供可能。采用投入产出法，基于福建省与厦门市投入产出数据，以2017年金砖会议为例，预测了会议前后厦门与福建由于区域宏观政策影响所带来的电力消耗变动情形，并将预测结果与活动前后实际波动情况进行了对比。对比结果显示，基于投入产出分析获得的预测分析结果可在一定程度上准确反应区域短期电力波动情况，但数据时滞性会对研究的准确性带来较大的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The production restriction activities during major urban events in China have a drastic impact on regional electricity consumption. Identifying the fluctuations in electricity consumption that may be caused by related activities in advance can provide a possibility for regional power supply providers to optimize their management decisions in advance. This study uses the input-output method based on the input-output table data of Fujian Province and Xiamen City. Taking the 2017 BRICS Conference as an example, it forecasts the changes in electricity consumption caused by regional macroeconomic policies in Xiamen and Fujian before and after the meeting, and the forecast results are compared with actual fluctuations before and after the activity. The comparison results show that the results of the change forecasting analysis based on input-output analysis can accurately reflect the regional shortterm power fluctuations to a certain extent, but the data hysteresis can impact the accuracy of the study. |
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