| 杨苏,黄俊辉,关志坚,袁越,吴涵.含光伏电站发电系统可靠性评估方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2017,19(4):23-28 |
| 含光伏电站发电系统可靠性评估方法研究 |
| Research of reliability analysis of generation systems with photovoltaic stations |
| 投稿时间：2017-04-18 修订日期：2017-05-28 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2017.04.005 |
| 中文关键词: 光伏电站 Fisher最优分段 模糊c均值聚类 可靠性评估 发电系统 |
| 英文关键词: photovoltaic station Fisher optimal segmentation fuzzy c-mean algorithm reliability assessment generation systems |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目课题(2016YFB0900103)；国网江苏省电力公司经济技术研究院科技项目(基于源网荷(储)优化协调的主动配电网示范区规划技术研究) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 年来光伏发电并网容量不断增加，如何准确评估其对发电系统可靠性的影响具有现实意义。综合考虑光伏出力具有的昼夜日周期性和季节时序特性，提出了一种基于最优分段和多维聚类算法的光伏出力建模方法。首先根据光伏每天有效出力时间长短为原则，采用Fisher最优分段算法，对其年时序出力进行最优分段；然后利用模糊c均值聚类技术对每一时间段逐一进行聚类分析。使得光伏出力的建模更细化，能较好地保留了其局部特性。以IEEE-RTS测试系统为例，针对宁夏某光伏电站实测出力数据，采用该方法将年评估时间尺度智能划分为5个时间段，并在各时间段上量化分析不同光伏容量对发电系统可靠性的影响。计算结果证明了该方法的有效性，对光伏电站的并网容量规划具有重要指导意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Recently, with the growing PV capacity, analyzing its impacts on reliability of power grid accurately has practical significance.This paper puts forward a novel method for modeling the PV output, based on optimal segmentation and multidimensional clustering method, which can retention circadian and seasonal timing characteristics well.Firstly, according to the effective output time of PV in a day, using Fisher optimal segmentation algorithm, year simulation period gets optimal segmentation.Secondly, using multidimensional cluster method of fuzzy c-mean cluster algorithm, each period is analyzed.This method makes photovoltaic output modeling more refined, and preserves its local properties better.Applied in IEEE-RTS test system, the reliability analysis uses meas-ured PV output in Ningxia.The year simulation period is divided into five optimal periods, and at each period, the impact on power system reliability of PV is analyzed.The result shows the effectiveness of the method, and provides significant guidance on PV capacity planning. |
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