Multi-scale medium-term load forecasting method based on CNN-LSTM-CMA-GRU
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1. Guodian Nanjing Automation Co., Ltd., Nanjing 211106 , China ;2. Science Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052 , China

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TM734

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    Abstract:

    Accurate mid-term power load forecasting is crucial for power dispatch and resource optimization. Addressing the practical need for daily peak/valley load management in power scheduling, medium-term forecasting is studied with daily maximum/minimum load as the prediction granularity. To overcome the error accumulation caused by the decay of coupling relationships between historical loads and multi-dimensional external variables in traditional methods, a deep neural network time-series forecasting approach incorporating a cross multi-head attention (CMA) mechanism is proposed. The model features three innovative designs: first, a dual-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network are used to extract the local pattern features of the load sequence and the global temporal correlation of auxiliary variables; second, a cross-multi-head attention layer is designed to establish a dynamic weight mapping between historical load and external variables in future periods; finally, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) achieves adaptive fusion of multi-scale features. Experimental results demonstrate that the model achieves high accuracy and ro-bustness in power load forecasting tasks.

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曹雯,范冰,徐铭铭,景力涛,李德军,汤文俊.基于CNN-LSTM-CMA-GRU的多尺度中期负荷预测方法[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2026,28(2):57-63.

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History
  • Received:January 10,2025
  • Revised:February 04,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 20,2026
  • Published:
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