Industry user load potential assessment based on MPA-CNN-LSTM fusion model and confidence interval correction
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1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Electric Power University, Shanghai 200090 , China ;2. Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240 , China

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TM714

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    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of "dual-carbon" goals, growing installed capacity of new energy, changes in user load characteristics and increased load demand have intensified pressure on grid supply-demand balance. To maintain grid stability and fully tap the adjustable load potential of industrial users, an industrial user load potential assessment strategy based on a hybrid MPA-CNN-LSTM model combined with confidence interval correction is proposed. First, building on existing load characteristics, load reduction characteristics are introduced—describing the types and methods of load reduction among different users in the same industry—as inputs to the MPA-CNN-LSTM prediction model. Second, the MPA-optimized CNN-LSTM neural network is trained using actual adjustable potential data from responsive users to predict industrial users' adjustable potential. Finally, the confidence interval correction method is applied to refine the predicted adjustable potential, enhancing accuracy.

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沈聪,艾芊,李晓露,高扬,陶伟健,赵晨阳.基于MPA-CNN-LSTM融合模型与置信区间修正的行业用户负荷潜力评估[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2026,28(1):8-16.

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History
  • Received:September 26,2025
  • Revised:November 08,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 20,2026
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