In order to further promote the development of electric vehicles, a method for estimating the ownership of electric vehicles is pro posed considering the master-slave game of carbon trading among the government, suppliers, and consumers. Firstly, based on the interests of the three parties, a master-slave game model led by the government is established. Secondly, considering the innovation, imitation effect,and price factors of the population, the Bass model is improved to predict the regional electric vehicle ownership. Furthermore, the utility functions of the three parties in the game are optimized as the objective function, in order to obtain the basic data under the Nash equilibrium solution for the parameters of the Bass model. And then, establishes a regional electric vehicle ownership prediction method is established by alternating between ownership prediction and vehicle market game simulation. Finally, with actual vehicle data from Shanghai,the impact of introducing carbon trading into the vehicle market on the number of electric vehicles is analyzed in the coming years.Through scenario comparison, the feasibility and economy of the proposed method are verified.