Accurate day-ahead load forecasting method based on BKM-VMD-TCN
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(1. Suqian Power Supply Company, State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd., Suqian 223800, China;2. School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China)

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TM714;TK018

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    Abstract:

    Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for optimizing distribution network planning. As the load data available to distribution networks becomes increasingly multidimensional and extensive, efficiently leveraging this data for precise day-ahead load forecasting has become a key research focus. To address this, an end-to-end approach that integrates data preprocessing, data decomposition,and data forecasting is proposed. In the data preprocessing stage, the bisecting K-means(BKM)clustering technique is used to reduce data noise and categorize the data, while combining dynamic and static feature extraction to capture load characteristics. In the data decomposition stage, the variational mode decomposition(VMD)technique is applied to decompose the preprocessed data into frequency components with strong periodicity and randomness. Finally, in the data forecasting stage, a temporal convolutional network(TCN)is employed to predict each mode component, and the predictions are aggregated to produce the final day-ahead load forecast. Case studies demonstrate that the BKM-VMD-TCN method proposed achieves superior forecasting accuracy compared to three other load forecasting methods.

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张 立,林光亮,陈 肯,苏 畅,柳 伟.基于BKM-VMD-TCN的日前负荷精准预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2025,27(3):32-37.

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History
  • Received:January 13,2025
  • Revised:February 25,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 25,2025
  • Published:
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