Abstract:In order to further reduce the forecasting error of electric load data, a short-term power load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification is proposed. First, for the electric power load data of each industry, the polynomial fitting error of temperature-sensitive load to the temperature series is taken as the objective function, and the load decomposition is transformed into a mathematical optimization problem, and the total load of each industry is decomposed into the weekly load based on load identification component and the temperature-sensitive load component. Second, the short-term load prediction is performed for the temperature-sensitive load component based on the long short-term memory network. Finally, the temperature-sensitive load prediction results are superimposed with the weekly load based on load identification component to obtain the complete load forecast results. The results show that the short-term load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification proposed can effectively reduce the short-term load forecasting error.