Short-term power load forecasting based on load decomposition and identification
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(1. College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2. Economic Research Institute, State Grid Henan Eletric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China)

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TM714;TK018

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    Abstract:

    In order to further reduce the forecasting error of electric load data, a short-term power load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification is proposed. First, for the electric power load data of each industry, the polynomial fitting error of temperature-sensitive load to the temperature series is taken as the objective function, and the load decomposition is transformed into a mathematical optimization problem, and the total load of each industry is decomposed into the weekly load based on load identification component and the temperature-sensitive load component. Second, the short-term load prediction is performed for the temperature-sensitive load component based on the long short-term memory network. Finally, the temperature-sensitive load prediction results are superimposed with the weekly load based on load identification component to obtain the complete load forecast results. The results show that the short-term load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification proposed can effectively reduce the short-term load forecasting error.

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ZHU Junpeng, LI Ziyu, LI Hujun, DENG Zhenli, YUAN Yue. Short-term power load forecasting based on load decomposition and identification[J].,2025,27(2):55-61.

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History
  • Received:October 28,2024
  • Revised:January 09,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 30,2025
  • Published:
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