Flexibility probabilistic prediction of electric vehicle fleet based on Gaussian process regression
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

(1. State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company,Shanghai 200030,China;2. Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)

Clc Number:

TM715;U491.8

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Electric vehicles(EVs)are important new adjustable load resources,and predicting their flexibility is an essential prerequisite for implementing optimized dispatch. A method to infer the fleet charging feasibility domain based on normal charging session data of EVs is proposed,forming a historical dataset on the flexibility of EV fleets. Subsequently,considering the high stochasticity of charging load,a probability prediction method for the flexibility of EV fleets based on Gaussian process regression is proposed. The obtained probability prediction results can be used to establish chance constraints for the optimization problem of EV fleet and convert them into deterministic constraints under specific confidence levels. Lastly,simulation verification is conducted using actual charging data. The results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the charging flexibility of EV fleets from both energy and power aspects. By adjusting the confidence level,it is possible to balance the economy and the implementability when optimizing the EV fleets.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

刘子腾,孙 烨,张沛超,徐博强,赵建立.基于高斯过程回归的电动汽车集群灵活性的概率预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2024,26(3):09-14.

Copy
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:January 05,2024
  • Revised:March 21,2024
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 25,2024
  • Published:
Article QR Code