Under the background of the double carbon target,a regional carbon emission prediction method is proposed for urban carbon emission path prediction. Firstly, based on Markov model and long-range energy alternatives planning system（LEAP）model,the energy consumption structure and energy demand of various industries in the region are predicted. Secondly, by calculating the carbon emission factors of each energy source and considering the impact of energy structure optimization and energy demand reduction on carbon emissions, the regional carbon emissions are calculated under different scenarios. Finally, a case study of regional carbon emission path prediction is carried out with a certain city in China as an example. The results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the regional carbon emissions and the impact of different policies and technological development on the carbon emission path.