Day ahead clearing price forecasting in power market based on blending ensemble-learning model
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(1. China Three Gorges Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430014, China;2. Beijing Tsingsoft Technology Co., Ltd.,Beijing 100085, China)

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TM73;TP181

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    Abstract:

    Accurate grasp of future electricity price information is of great significance to obtain the operation state of the market, support all parties involved in the market to make effective decisions, and promote market players to reasonably optimize resource allocation. Hence, a comprehensive model is constructed for day ahead price forecasting based on blending integrated learning mechanism. The model fully considers the high volatility of electricity price and adopts Ashin transform to reduce the impact of input data volatility on the prediction model. Four mature single electricity price forecasting models, SVM, Lightgbm, EWNN and SARIMAX are selected as primary learners to ensure the forecasting accuracy based on blending integrated learning model. The actual operation data of American PJM power market is selected to verify the above electricity price prediction model. The comparative analysis of the prediction results shows that the electricity price comprehensive prediction model based on blending integrated learning mechanism integrates the advantages of a variety of traditional prediction models and has good accuracy and stability.

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卢凯灵,李盼扉,何振锋,王 勇,薛书倩.基于Blending集成学习模型的电力市场日前出清电价预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2023,25(3):27-32.

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History
  • Received:January 10,2023
  • Revised:March 10,2023
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 31,2023
  • Published:
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