Generalized additive short-term load forecasting model considering eigenvalue subdivision
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( 1. Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510000, China;2. Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

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    Abstract:

    Accurate load forecasting is the key to ensure the orderly operation of the power market. In view of the limited environment of single factor forecasting and the ill- considered problems of the split and interaction of variables in the comprehensive model, a generalized additive short- term load forecasting model considering subdivided characteristic variables such as temperature, holidays and load is proposed. Firstly, the correlation coefficients of different factors and loads are subdivided and calculated,and the eigenvalues are selected according to the correlation degree. Secondly, the load fluctuation basis function is determined,and the whole forecasting model is formed according to the subdivided characteristic variables. Finally, the actual operation data of Guangzhou is used to calculate and analyze. The example shows that the generalized additive model based on eigenvalue subdivision is an effective method for short-term load forecasting.

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向德军,张维静,冯歆尧,杨秋勇,蔡元纪.考虑特征值细分的广义加性短期负荷预测模型[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2023,25(1):46-51.

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History
  • Received:September 30,2022
  • Revised:November 10,2022
  • Adopted:
  • Online: February 07,2023
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