Monthly electricity sales forecasting of different industries based on similar month and Elman neural network model
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(School of Electrical and Automation Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China)

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TM715;TK018

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    Abstract:

    In order to increase the accuracy and improve the forecasting system of electricity sales, a combined forecasting model of Elman neural network combined with historical similar monthis proposed. Combined with the characteristics of rapid identification among historical data, a set of historical data similar to the forecasted month is found by analyzing and processing the detailed data and external influencing factors of electricity sales objects.This set of historical data is used as the input data of Elman neural network to complete the prediction of such sales objects. Then, the forecast data of each electricity sales object is combined to get the total monthly forecast electricity sales. The simulation result shows that compared with the single Elman neural network, the combined prediction method has higher prediction accuracy, better convergence performance and a good application prospect.

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孙旺青,刘晓峰,何沁蔓.基于相似月和Elman神经网络的行业月度售电量预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2022,24(4):53-58.

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History
  • Received:May 17,2022
  • Revised:June 15,2022
  • Adopted:
  • Online: August 11,2022
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