A short⁃term load prediction method based on the wavelet transform and seasonal Holt⁃Winters model
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(1. Fujian Electric Power Trading Center Co., Ltd., Fuzhou 350003, China;2.State Grid Info-telecom Great Power Science and Technology Co.,Ltd., Fuzhou 350003, China;3. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China)

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    Abstract:

    Accurate load forecasting plays a very important role in the operation of power selling companies in the power market. However, the load of enterprise users is unstable under the influence of various factors. Therefore, a short-term load forecasting method based on the seasonal Holt-Winters model of discrete wavelet decomposition and particle swarm optimization is proposed. In view of the unsteady periodicity of the original load sequence, the discrete wavelet transform is used to decompose the original load sequence, and the seasonal Holt-Winters model is adopted for prediction. Meanwhile, wavelet denoising and particle swarm optimization algorithm are used to further improve the accuracy of the prediction model. Wavelet denoising not only eliminates the potential noise in the original data, but also smoothes the data, and particle swarm optimization allows Holt-Winters model to find the optimal parameters during training. The model is used for short-term prediction of load data with different variation characteristics, and the experimental results show that the model has good prediction accuracy and can be applied to short-term load prediction of users with different power consumption types.

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杨首晖,陈传彬,王雪晶,李庆伟,吴元林,陈 静.基于小波变换和季节性Holt-Winters模型的 短期负荷预测方法[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2021,23(5):70-75.

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History
  • Received:April 28,2021
  • Revised:July 30,2021
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 24,2021
  • Published:
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