Monthly electricity forecasting based on K⁃L information and ARIMA error correction
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(1. Hainan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Haikou 570204, China; 2. Beijing Tsingsoft Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100085, China)

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    Abstract:

    In order to consider the influence of multiple factors on electricity and improve the accuracy of monthly electricity forecasting. A monthly electricity forecasting method is proposed based on the K-L information method and ARIMA error correction. Based on screening relevant indicators, the correlation analysis method is used to make regression modeling on the influence indicators and electricity, calculate of fitting errors, and construct a new non - stationary time series, combined with the ARIMA model to modify this series. Monthly electricity predictions obtained with better accuracy, have higher application value.

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CHEN Mingfan, NING Guangtao, LI Linwei, HE Lipeng, LIU Lixin. Monthly electricity forecasting based on K⁃L information and ARIMA error correction[J].,2021,23(2):43-46.

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History
  • Received:September 03,2020
  • Revised:December 15,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 19,2021
  • Published:
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