Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors
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(1. Huaibei Meteorological Bureau of Anhui, Huaibei 235037, China;2. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hefei 230031, China;3. State Grid Huaibei Power Supply Company, Huaibei 235000, China)

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This work is supported by Public Welfare Scientific Research Project of Anhui Province(No. 1604f0804002);Science and Technology Fund of Anhui Meteorological Bureau(No.KM201709)

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    Abstract:

    Based on the electric load, macroeconomic data and meteorological observation data in Huaibei of Anhui from 2012 to 2018, some equations are built by using correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and curve fitting method. The actual power load is divided into trend load and fluctuating load. The trend load forecast model is established based on economic index after the relationship between trend load and economic data is analyzed. The fitting rate of the model reaches 99.3% . The forecast model of fluctuating load is built based on meteorological factors after the relationship between fluctuating load and meteorological factors are analyzed. The fitting rate of the model reaches 97.8%.The application of these results provides scientific basis for operation and dispatch of Huaibei Power Grid, and it has achieved obvious social and economic benefits.

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汪付华,周后福,戴金源,张屏,董平安,张怀念,刘璐.基于经济气象因素的月用电负荷预测模型研究[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2020,22(5):78-82.

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History
  • Received:May 08,2020
  • Revised:July 16,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 29,2020
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