Study on characteristics and demand forecast of low⁃voltage electricity load in an urban village in Guangzhou
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(1. Dandong Power Supply Company, State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd., Dandong 118000, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;3. Shenyang Power Supply Company, State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd., Shenyang 110000, China)

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This work is supported by Vocational Innovation Project of Guangzhou Power Supply Bureau Co., Ltd.(No. K-GZZG-2019-077)

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    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem of unbalanced electricity supply and demand of urban villages, the historical load data of an urban village in Guangzhou(N village)from 2016 to 2017 are analyzed. According to the relevant indicators of daily, monthly and quarterly(yearly)load characteristics, the change law and characteristics of the load of N village are determined. The load influencing factors of the urban village are classified, and SPSS is used to analyze the factors, conduct principal component analysis and complete linear regression, and the main influencing factors and load forecasting models that affect the load changes are obtained. The interpolation extrapolation method is used to verify the versatility of the model. The prediction of the load can provide the decision-making basis for the power supply department.

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赖水生,肖军,蓝贤钢,左小德.广州某城中村低压用电负荷的特性与需求预测研究[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2020,22(5):73-77.

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History
  • Received:May 07,2020
  • Revised:July 16,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 29,2020
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