Forecasting method of provincial grid’s annual power demand based on influencing factors from economic and meteorological dimensions
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(1. Institute of Economy and Technology, State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company, Hefei 230022, China;2. State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company, Hefei 230061, China; 3. State Grid Liuan Power Supply Company,Liuan 237000, China)

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This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71801092)

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    Abstract:

    Currently, economic new normal and frequent extreme weather make influencing factors of power demand more diversified. Forever, integrated forecast methods of such two power demand indicators as power consumption and max power load arenot scientifically formed. Main influencing factors of power demandfrom economic and meteorological dimensions are systematicallyanalyzed and a forecast model system of provincial grid’s annualpower demand is established. The instance of Anhui province demonstrates that the key of improving forecast accuracy is to identify critical influencing factors regardless of basing forecast model on multiple linear regression or intelligent algorithm. Mean forecast error rates of power consumption and max power load remain are both within 2% in this model, becoming an effective method for electricity market analysts to forecast annual power demand.

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王 宝,马 静,叶 斌,杨 敏,卢金滇,李亚玲.基于经济与气象维度影响因素的省级电网年度电力需求预测方法[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2020,22(2):51-56.

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History
  • Received:October 27,2019
  • Revised:December 14,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 30,2020
  • Published:
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