Warning model and user credit risk evaluation method under the background ofnew power grid reform
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(1. State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North ChinaElectric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;2. Shibei Electricity Supply Company, State Grid ShanghaiMunicipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200072, China)

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This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFB0904000);Science and Technology Project of State Grid(No.SGJB0000TKJS1801242)

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    Abstract:

    In the background of the new power reform, correct and reasonable assessment of the credit risk of power usersand early warning are important factors that restrict the further development of power supply enterprises. In order to carry out creditevaluation of power users and help power supply enterprises to balance the risk level of power trading, based on random forest algorithm, the evaluation principles and indicators of power users arestudied accroding to the evaluation indicators of credit risk in power market. The early warning model of power users evaluates thecredit risk of power users from enterprise market risk, financialrisk, credit risk, operational risk and settlement management risk.It is expected to improve the trading mechanism of electricity market and promote the rational and efficient allocation of resources,help power industry develope healthily under the protection of credit system.

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余 培,刘其辉,石 城.新电改背景下电力用户信用风险预警模型与评价方法[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2020,22(2):34-38.

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History
  • Received:
  • Revised:November 25,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 30,2020
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