A multivariate regression load forecasting algorithm based on factor and tendency analysis feedback
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(1.College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310007, China;2.State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company, Hangzhou 310007, China)

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    Abstract:

    A weather concerning multivariate regression model combining with factor analysis feedback and tendency analysis feedback is proposed to reduce the counting burden in verifing accuracy of forecasting algorithm. Firstly, the relationship between weather and load indexes are evaluated by factor analysis; Secondly, a tendency analysis about time-varying load indexes is demonstrated; Thirdly, the forecasting equations are presented by multivariate nonlinear regression analysis; Lastly, in forecasting verification process, factor analysis and tendency analysis are applied in the forecasting data, and the error between the feedback of forecasting data and history data are treated as the accuracy verification principle. Numerical examples are given, presenting the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method.

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胡怡霜,夏翔,丁一,方建亮.基于因子和趋势分析反馈的多元回归负荷预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2018,20(6):22-25.

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History
  • Received:August 06,2018
  • Revised:August 20,2018
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  • Online: December 04,2018
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