Forecasting of bus.bar net load based on PSR.ARIMA and SVR
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(1.Jiaxing Power Supply Company, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company, Jiaxing 314000,China; 2.China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China; 3.Ningbo Power SupplyCompany, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company, Ningbo 315000, China; 4.College ofEnergy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

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TM714

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    Abstract:

    In order to realize the real.time tracking and fore.casting of net load with distributed power bus, in the light of the busload with distributed photovoltaic power grid, according to the linearand nonlinear properties of net load inherent, the autoregressivemoving average with the phase space reconstruction and support vec.tor machine bus.bar net load forecasting method is proposed.Firstly,based on the historical net load data, the ARIMA model is estab.lished to forecast the linear components of the net load.Then, thephase space of the nonlinear components is reconstructed by CCmethod.Finally, the nonlinear part is forecasted by the SVR model.The results of data modeling show that the proposed ARIMA .CC_SVR forecasting model is suitable for the net load of the bus.barwith distributed PV components.

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金山红,朱想,赫卫国,王波,梅飞,李玉杰,袁晓玲,刘皓明.基于相空间重构ARIMA和SVR的母线净负荷预测[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2018,20(2):20-24.

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  • Online: April 04,2018
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