Air.condition load forecasting in summer of power grid usingpearson correlation coefficient
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(1.State Grid Changde Supply Company, Changde 415000, China; 2.State Grid Yueyang SupplyCompany, Yueyang 414000 ,China; 3.Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China)

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TM714

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    Abstract:

    In this paper, the variation rule of the air.condi.tioning load in summer regional power grid can be obtained usingstatistical analysis.By overall considering the influencing factors ofair.conditioning load, the forecasting model of summer air.condition.ing load in regional power grid was built.The model was based onthe load curves of the regional power grid, and realized the effectiveseparation of the air.conditioning load curve.Then the Pearson cor.relation coefficient was used to investigate the correlation betweenvarious factors and daily maximum air.conditioning cooling load.Through comparing the correlation coefficient between the dailymaximum air .conditioning cooling load and all kinds of indexes, aneconomic .meteorological comprehensive index, reflecting the factthat the daily maximum air.conditioning load is greatly affected bythe meteorological and socio.economic in a region, was constructed.And the regression analysis was used to extract the change rule ofthe air conditioning cooling load and the comprehensive index.Fi.nally, the accurate prediction of summer air.conditioning load is re.alized.A regional data of power load and its related factors from2006 to 2015 was used as training sample to forecast the summer air.conditioning load in 2016 of the region.The forecasting resultsproved the validity of the proposed model.

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唐伟斌,李涛,邹品晶,曾建平,向仲卿,胡斯佳.基于皮尔逊相关系数的电网夏季空调负荷预测研究[J].电力需求侧管理英文版,2017,19(6):7-13.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: December 07,2017
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