基于交通均衡与深度神经网络的电动汽车充电站负荷预测
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作者单位:

1. 国网电力科学研究院有限公司(南瑞集团有限公司),南京 211106 ;2. 国电南瑞南京控制系统有限公司,南京 211106

作者简介:

朱庆(1981),男,江苏扬州人,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为虚拟电厂、碳排预测、负荷预测、5G在电力系统的应用和可信计算。

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中图分类号:

TM715

基金项目:

国家电网公司科技项目(5400-202417205A-1-1-ZN)


Electric vehicle charging station load forecasting based on traffic equilibrium and deep neural networks
Author:
Affiliation:

1. State Grid Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group Corporation), Nanjing 211106 , China ;2. NARI Nanjing Control Systems Co., Ltd., Nanjing 211106 , China

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    摘要:

    电动汽车的大规模接入使配电网负荷呈现显著的时空波动特性,对电力系统的运行安全与充电设施规划带来挑战。传统时间序列和统计模型难以反映交通行为对充电负荷形成机制的影响。为此,提出一种基于交通均衡理论与深度神经网络相结合的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法。首先,建立考虑电量约束的交通均衡模型,模拟不同出行需求下的交通流量与充电行为,生成路网运行数据;随后,采用相关性分析与(shapley additive explanations,SHAP)方法筛选关键特征,识别充电负荷的主要影响因素;最后,构建多层全连接神经网络,实现各充电站节点的充电负荷预测。结果显示,所提模型具有良好的收敛性与稳定性,能够在精确预测充电负荷的同时,有效揭示交通行为与电力负荷间的耦合关系,为充电设施规划与配电系统优化提供技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    The large-scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs) has caused significant spatial and temporal fluctuations in distribution network loads, posing challenges to power system operation security and charging infrastructure planning. Traditional time-series and statistical models fail to capture the influence of traffic behavior on the formation of charging loads. To address this issue, a hybrid EV charging load forecasting method combining traffic equilibrium theory and deep neural networks (DNN) is proposed. First, a traffic equilibrium model considering energy constraints is established to simulate traffic flow and charging behavior under different travel demand scenarios, thereby generating network operation data. Then, correlation analysis and SHAP methods are applied to identify key influencing features and determine the primary factors affecting charging loads. Finally, a multi-layer fully connected neural network is constructed to predict charging loads at multiple charging station nodes. It is demonstrated that the proposed model exhibits good convergence and stability, and that charging loads can be accurately forecast while the coupling relationship between traffic behavior and power demand is effectively revealed. Technical support is provided for charging infrastructure planning and the optimization of modern distribution systems.

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引用本文

朱庆,徐致光,许少哲,续远.基于交通均衡与深度神经网络的电动汽车充电站负荷预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(5):96-103

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-06-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-18
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