基于系统动力学的工业园区零碳转型可行性评估模型
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(国网江苏省电力有限公司 电力经济技术研究院,南京 210000)

作者简介:

牛文娟(1983),女,江苏南京人,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为电力市场、能源战略等。

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中图分类号:

TM74

基金项目:

国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目资助(J2024008)


Feasibility evaluation model of zero carbon transformation in industrial parks based on system dynamics
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(Econorric and Technical Research Institute, State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210000, China)

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    摘要:

    园区零碳转型可行性评估是推进零碳园区发展的重要基础。考虑到园区是否能实现零碳转型受到园区GDP、化石能源消费强度、新能源发电量、减碳技术投资等多因素的综合影响,提出一种基于系统动力学的工业园区零碳转型可行性评估模型,该模型含燃料燃烧及生产过程碳排放、污水处理碳排放、外购电力碳排放、碳汇及CCUS技术减碳四大模块。仿真结果表明,该模型能够预测多因素影响下园区实现零碳转型的具体时间,为园区实现零碳转型的策略配置提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Feasibility assessment of zero carbon transformation in parks is an important basis for promoting the development of zero carbon parks. Considering that whether the park can achieve zero carbon transformation depends on the comprehensive effects of factors such as the park’s GDP, fossil energy consumption intensity, new energy power generation, and carbon reduction technology investment, a feasibility assessment model for zero-carbon transformation of industrial parks based on system dynamics is proposed. The model consists of four modules:fuel combustion and production process carbon emissions, sewage treatment carbon emissions, purchased power carbon emissions, and carbon sinks and CCUS technology carbon reduction. The simulation results show that the model can predict the specific time for the park to achieve zero carbon transformation under the influence of multiple factors, and provide guidance for the configuration of emission reduction strategies.

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牛文娟,徐 筝,薛贵元,陈 琛,诸晓骏,吴 垠,王 鑫,肖人杰.基于系统动力学的工业园区零碳转型可行性评估模型[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(6):17-22

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-12
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-08
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