省级用电市场发展态势综合量化评估分析方法研究
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(1.国网江苏省电力公司,南京 210024;2.东南大学电气工程学院,南京 210096; 3.国网无锡供电公司,江苏无锡 214000;4.国网秦皇岛供电公司,河北秦皇岛 066000; 5.悉尼大学工程和信息技术学院,悉尼 2008)

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F426.61

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Research on comprehensive quantitative evaluation and analysis method of provincialelectricity market development situation
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(1. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company, Nanjing 210024, China; 2. School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 3. State Grid Wuxi Power Supply Company, Wuxi 214000, China; 4. State Grid Qinhuangdao Power Supply Company, Qinhuangdao 066000, China; 5. School of Engineering and Information Technologies, University of Sydney, Sydney 2008, Australia)

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    摘要:

    面对新电改形势下动态的、不确定的外部经济环境的影响,要正确地把握用电市场的发展趋势及规律,就必须综合地分析外部环境下各方面因素。通过对原始数据的季节调整、标准化等处理,使数据能反映其较为真实的规律,其次对众多经济指标进行分类降维,最后基于改进的柯布 -道格拉斯生产函数,来量化各类经济指标对用电量的影响程度。通过对外部环境的影响进行持续跟踪、数据积累,及时识别影响用电市场的因素,对用电市场观测者准确把握用电市场发展态势具有重要的参考价值。

    Abstract:

    In the face of dynamic and uncertain effects of theexternal economic environment, in order to correctly grasp the pro.vincial electricity market trends and laws, it is necessary to take allaspects of the external environment factors into consideration.Theseasonal adjustment and standardization are applied in the originaldata, so that the data can reflect its more real laws, then the econom.ic indicators are classified and the dimension is reduced.Finally,based on the improved Cobb.Douglas production function, the im.pact of various economic indicators on electricity consumption couldbe quantified.By tracking the impact on the external environment,accumulating data, timely identifying external policies and incidentsaffecting the electricity market, the result has important referencevalue for electricity market observers to accurately grasp the devel.opment trend of electricity market.

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杨晓梅,李艺丰,王蓓蓓,胡晓青,孔林,潘璐.省级用电市场发展态势综合量化评估分析方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2018,20(2):11-15

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  • 收稿日期:2017-10-17
  • 最后修改日期:2017-11-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-04
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