阶梯碳交易下CVaR反馈的综合能源系统鲁棒优化调度
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上海电力大学

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CVaR-Feedback Robust Optimal Dispatch of Integrated Energy Systems under Laddered Carbon Trading
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Shanghai University of Electric Power

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    摘要:

    针对源荷不确定性下综合能源系统低碳经济调度中鲁棒参数依赖经验选取、尾部经济风险缺少量化反馈的问题,提出一种计及阶梯式碳交易的两阶段鲁棒优化与CVaR后验评估相结合的调度决策方法。该方法先在给定不确定性预算Γ下建立考虑设备运行、源荷不确定集和阶梯式碳交易成本的鲁棒调度模型,获得日前方案;再基于拉丁超立方抽样场景评估日内调整成本,采用条件风险价值量化尾部经济风险,并通过全局RRPC与相邻Γ边际RRPC共同识别经济性、低碳性与稳健性的折中点。算例表明,该方法可降低不利扰动下的尾部经济风险,并为不确定性预算选择提供可追溯量化依据。

    Abstract:

    To address empirical robust-parameter selection and insufficient feedback on tail economic risk in low-carbon dispatch of integrated energy systems under source-load uncertainty, a dispatch decision method combining two-stage robust optimization with posterior CVaR evaluation under laddered carbon trading is proposed. For a given uncertainty budget Γ, the method first establishes a robust dispatch model considering equipment operation, source-load uncertainty sets, and laddered carbon-trading costs to obtain the day-ahead schedule. Then, intraday adjustment costs are evaluated based on Latin hypercube sampling scenarios, conditional value-at-risk is used to quantify tail economic risk, and global RRPC together with adjacent-Γ marginal RRPC is employed to identify the trade-off among economy, low carbon performance, and robustness. Case studies show that the proposed method can reduce tail economic risk under adverse disturbances and provide a traceable quantitative basis for uncertainty-budget selection.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-09
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-08
  • 录用日期:2026-08-07
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