考虑综合需求响应的AGCN-TimeXer综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测
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1. 青岛大学 电气工程学院,山东 青岛 266071 ;2. 国网青岛供电公司,山东 青岛 266002

作者简介:

董家铭(2000),男,山东济宁人,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域综合能源系统多元负荷预测;

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中图分类号:

FM714

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52077108)


AGCN-TimeXer based short-term multi load forecasting of integrated energy system considering integrated demand response
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Affiliation:

1. College of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071 , China ;2. State Grid Qingdao Power Supply Company, Qingdao 266002 , China

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    摘要:

    针对综合能源系统中需求响应机制与多元负荷动态耦合特性,提出一种考虑综合需求响应的自适应卷积网络(adaptive graph convolutional network,AGCN)-TimeXer多元负荷预测模型。首先,基于消费者心理学理论对电力需求响应信号建模并量化其不确定性,通过耦合响应原理计算冷负荷与热负荷响应,构建综合需求响应信号。其次,采用自适应图卷积网络构建多元负荷的动态图结构,提取多元负荷间的动态耦合关系。最后利用TimeXer的自注意力机制挖掘负荷数据的时序依赖特性,并通过交叉注意力机制分析多元负荷与外部影响因素(含综合需求响应信号、多元负荷动态耦合关系和气象因素)的关联机制。仿真算例结果表明,该预测模型相较于传统预测模型具有更高的预测精度。

    Abstract:

    Considering the demand response mechanism and the dynamic coupling characteristics of multi loads in integrated energy systems, a multi load forecasting model based on an AGCN-TimeXer framework that incorporates integrated demand response is proposed. Firstly, drawing on consumer psychology theories, the electricity demand response signals are modeled and their uncertainty is quantified. Comprehensive demand response signals are then constructed by calculating cooling and heating load responses using the coupling response principle. Secondly, an adaptive graph convolutional network (AGCN) is employed to construct a dynamic adaptive graph structure, thereby facilitating the extraction of dynamic coupling relationships among multi loads. Finally, the self-attention mechanism of TimeXer is utilized to explore the temporal dependence characteristics of load data, and the cross-attention mechanism is adopted to analyze the relationships between multivariate loads and external influencing factors, including integrated demand response signals, dynamic coupling relationships among multivariate loads, and meteorological factors. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods in terms of prediction accuracy.

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董家铭,韩兴臣,张智晟.考虑综合需求响应的AGCN-TimeXer综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(5):75-81

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-16
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-18
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