考虑源荷不确定性的港口岸电系统智能调度方法研究
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1.中国矿产资源集团舟山发展有限公司;2.国电南瑞南京控制系统有限公司

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国家重点研发计划 (2022YFB2404005)


Research on intelligent dispatch of harbor shore power systems considering source-load uncertainty
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National Key Research and Development Program (No. 2022YFB2404005)

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    摘要:

    在绿色港口建设背景下,为提升港口OPS(岸电系统)对分布式光伏的消纳能力并降低运行成本,提出一种考虑源荷不确定性的智能调度方法。首先,针对港区复杂物理环境对光伏出力的干扰,计及龙门吊动态遮挡、盐雾衰减及海面反射等物理干扰,建立光伏出力修正模型,并引入IGDT(信息间隙决策理论),采用时变不确定性半径刻画预测偏差的不确定性包络区间。同时,联动船舶报备先验信息解构岸电负荷,并以时变扰动强度描述需求侧随机波动特征。在此基础上,构建以运行成本最小为目标的能量管理模型,利用DDPG(深度确定性策略梯度)算法对购电功率、光伏消纳及储能充放电等连续变量进行在线求解。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够有效提升港口岸电系统的经济性与鲁棒性,保障系统可靠运行。

    Abstract:

    In the context of green port construction, this study proposes an intelligent dispatch method for onshore power supply systems (OPS) that accounts for source-load uncertainties to enhance economic efficiency and improve the accommoda-tion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. To address the interference of complex port environments on PV output, a physical correction model is established by considering factors such as dynamic shading from gantry cranes, salt-fog attenuation, and sea-surface reflection. On this basis, infor-mation-gap decision theory (IGDT) is introduced, and a time-varying uncertainty radius is employed to characterize the uncertainty envelope of PV forecasting deviations. Meanwhile, the OPS load is decomposed by integrating prior information from vessel berthing schedules, and a time-varying disturbance intensity is adopted to describe stochastic fluctuations on the demand side. Subsequently, an energy management model aimed at minimizing total operat-ing cost is formulated, and the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm is utilized to achieve online opti-mization of continuous decision variables, including grid power purchase, PV accommodation, and charg-ing/discharging of energy storage. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method can effectively improve the economy and robustness of the port OPS while ensuring reliable operation.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-26
  • 录用日期:2026-08-25
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