基于ITTAO-TBA框架的多变量时空太阳辐照度预测方法
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云南师范大学能源与环境科学学院

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云南省重点产业科技项目博士服务产业研究与创新培育专项项目(FWCY-BSPY2024071);云南师范大学研究生项目(YJSJJ24-A21)


Multivariate Spatiotemporal Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Photovoltaic Operation Optimization Based on the ITTAO-TBA Framework
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Yunnan Normal University

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Doctoral Service Industry Research and Innovation Cultivation Project for Key Industry Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province (FWCY-BSPY2024071);Graduate Program of Yunnan Normal University(YJSJJ24-A21)

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    摘要:

    太阳辐照度是光伏发电系统的重要能量输入,其预测精度直接影响光伏功率预测、并网调度、储能优化和运行决策。针对太阳辐照度序列受昼夜周期、季节变化和复杂气象扰动影响而呈现非线性、非平稳及多尺度波动特征的问题,提出一种融合改进三角拓扑聚合优化器(ITTAO)与时间卷积网络(TCN)、双向门控循环单元(Bi-GRU)及注意力机制(Attention)的混合预测框架。该框架在三角拓扑聚合优化器基础上引入自适应权重调节、差分进化扰动和三角拓扑协同更新机制,以增强超参数搜索过程中的全局探索能力、局部开发能力和寻优稳定性;同时,利用 TCN 提取局部多尺度波动特征,利用 Bi-GRU 建模双向时序依赖,并通过注意力机制强化关键时间步与气象特征表达。基于 Clark 和 Loyola 两个公开光伏站点数据,开展月尺度、季节尺度以及 1 h、3 h、6 h 和 24 h 短期多步预测实验,并与传统机器学习、深度学习及统一实验框架下实现的 PatchTST-style、iTransformer-style等时间序列基线模型进行对比。结果表明,所提框架在月度和季节尺度预测中具有较高精度,最低平均绝对误差为 3.25 W·m2,最高决定系数达 0.998;在短期多步预测任务中,不同模型性能表现出一定的站点和预测步长依赖性,ITTAO-TBA 在多个中短期预测任务中较原始 TBA 降低 RMSE,表明 ITTAO 对 TBA 网络超参数优化具有积极作用。研究结果可为光伏日前/日内调度和系统优化运行提供具有竞争力的太阳辐照度预测方法。

    Abstract:

    Solar irradiance is a key energy input for photovoltaic power generation systems, and its forecasting accuracy directly affects photovoltaic power prediction, grid-connected dispatch, energy storage optimization, and operational decision-making. To address the nonlinear, non-stationary, and multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of solar irradiance series caused by diurnal cycles, seasonal variations, and complex meteorological disturbances, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework integrating an improved triangular topology aggregation optimizer (ITTAO) with temporal convolutional network (TCN), bidirectional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU), and attention mechanism. Based on the original triangular topology aggregation optimizer, the proposed framework introduces adaptive weight adjustment, differential evolution perturbation, and triangular topology collaborative updating mechanisms to enhance global exploration, local exploitation, and optimization stability during hyperparameter search. Meanwhile, TCN is used to extract local multi-scale fluctuation features, Bi-GRU is employed to model bidirectional temporal dependencies, and the attention mechanism is introduced to emphasize key time steps and meteorological features. Using two public photovoltaic station datasets, Clark and Loyola, monthly, seasonal, and short-term multi-step forecasting experiments at 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, and 24 h horizons were conducted. The proposed framework was compared with traditional machine learning models, deep learning models, and time-series baselines implemented under a unified experimental framework, including PatchTST-style and iTransformer-style models. The results show that the proposed framework achieves high accuracy in monthly and seasonal forecasting, with the lowest mean absolute error of 3.25 W·m?2 and the highest coefficient of determination of 0.998. In short-term multi-step forecasting tasks, model performance exhibits clear site- and horizon-dependent characteristics, while ITTAO-TBA reduces RMSE compared with the original TBA in several short- and medium-term forecasting tasks, indicating that ITTAO has a positive effect on TBA hyperparameter optimization. This study provides a competitive solar irradiance forecasting method for day-ahead and intraday photovoltaic dispatching and system optimization.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-07-01
  • 录用日期:2026-07-14
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