| 程孟晗,延巧娜,卫茹,刘永生,朱英杰,孔维君.考虑电-气-碳市场异步及不确定性的综合能源系统多时间尺度优化调度[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(4):72-78 |
| 考虑电-气-碳市场异步及不确定性的综合能源系统多时间尺度优化调度 |
| Multi-timescale optimal dispatch of integrated energy systems considering electricity-gas-carbon multi-market asynchrony and uncertainty |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-23 修订日期：2026-04-02 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.04.011 |
| 中文关键词: 综合能源系统 多时间尺度优化 电-气-碳市场 条件价值风险 |
| 英文关键词: integrated energy system multi-timescale optimization electricity-gas-carbon markets conditional value-at-risk |
| 基金项目:国网江苏省电力有限公司省管产业单位科技项目(JC2024004) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在全球能源转型及碳市场快速发展背景下,综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)通过多能协同与市场联动逐渐成为支撑低碳经济的重要手段。然而,现有研究对于综合能源系统在电、气、碳多市场环境下的跨年度交易异步性和多时间尺度决策的考虑尚不完善。针对这一问题,提出了一种考虑多市场异步及不确定性的综合能源系统多时间尺度优化决策方法。在年尺度,优化电力与天然气合同交易及碳配额的跨年度储备策略,并基于碳市场履约规则体现碳交易的跨年度特性;在日尺度,基于年尺度优化结果,精细化园区设备运行策略与现货市场交易方案。通过引入条件价值风险(conditional value-at-risk,CVaR)方法,模型量化并控制市场价格波动及碳排放核查不确定性带来的风险,确保调度方案的经济性与稳健性。算例验证了所提方法在多市场协调与多尺度决策的有效性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Against the background of the global energy transition and the rapid development of carbon markets, integrated energy systems (IESs) gradually become an important approach to supporting a low-carbon economy through multi-energy coordination and market interactions. However, existing studies do not fully address the asynchronous nature of inter-annual trading and multi-timescale decision-making for IESs in electricity, natural gas, and carbon markets. To address this issue, a multi-timescale optimization decision-making method for IESs considering multi-market asynchrony and uncertainty is proposed. At the annual scale, the proposed method optimizes electricity and natural gas contract trading strategies as well as inter-annual carbon quota banking strategies, and characterizes the inter-annual features of carbon trading according to carbon market compliance rules. At the daily scale, based on the annual-scale optimization results, the operation strategies of park-level energy devices and spot market trading schemes are further refined. By introducing the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) method, the model quantifies and controls the risks caused by market price fluctuations and uncertainty in carbon emission verification, thereby ensuring the economic efficiency and robustness of the scheduling scheme. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in multi-market coordination and multi-timescale decision-making. |
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